The growing foreclosure numbers in Dayton

Some earlier posts here used home foreclosures as an indicator urban decline and economic stress in Dayton and parts of Kettering. That information was based on data collected in 2005 or 2006.

It turns out the social activist group ACORN has done more recent research on this for larger Ohio countys. For Montgomery County the foreclosure rate has really jumped over the course of a year. These charts from the ACORN report shows a one month comparison and detail for the top zips:

ACORN maps out the rates by zip code, showing the geography of the highest number of foreclosures. Ive added some labels and and also show the top five foreclosure areas, which are all in or next to Dayton, including Dowtown and the Oregon district.


It should be noted that Huber Heights is the suburb with the highest forclosures. That something was awry in Huber was evident by driving through the older parts of the suburb this past spring, noticing the vacant houses with uncut grass and those "cut your grass" signs Huber Heights government puts on the yards.

A check in at the County Auditors property record database does show a number of units owned by banks in Huber Heights, probably foreclosed units. There are also a number owned by investors or absentee owners, which might indicate this progression in Huber Heights (and elsewhere in Montgomery County):

ownership--->foreclosure--->bank--->investor--->rental

More Creative Class Hoo-Hah

Richard Florida is a hot topic in Dayton.

He must have impressed some movers and shakers as there is a move afoot to retain his consultancy to do some sort of creative class study of the Dayton economy.

The Dayton Daily News even has two articles on this:

Creative Dayton, Will it Work Here?

Dayton area has ingredients for creative class, says task force group.

There is some transparent spin in the article:

For example, from the articles:

"One of the area's major assets, the task force realized, is its high concentration of a diverse group of colleges and universities, which in 2005 contributed nearly $3 billion to the local economy."

What high concentration? UD and WSU and Sinclair? Or are they counting Central State, Wlberforce, Wittenberg and Cedarville College, too? This is laughable, or transparent boosterism.

Then there are some half-truths:

But another study published in August in the Journal of Economic Geography tested the creative class theory and found that results supported the idea that a creative milieu attracting artists "increases an area's economic dynamism."

...and here is that study: Emoting with their feet: Bohemian attraction to creative mileu.

The study focuses to some extent on rural areas as the authors work with rural/ag economics. The article also considers urban areas. From the conclusion:

Moving beyond the attraction of creative workers, our strong definition of creative milieu is more germane to the policy debate animated by discussion of the creative class. For metro areas, our findings are unsatisfying as they identify a potentially large effect, but one that fails to meet conventional standards of reliability.

Given the point estimate, metro counties in the top decile of creative milieu would generate close to twice the number of new establishments per worker compared to metro counties in the bottom decile. This is confirmed in the sample, where the top decile generated three establishments per hundred workers, on average, compared to 1.6 establishments generated in the bottom decile. Unfortunately, the standard error associated with the point estimate is large. The prudent conclusion is to suspend judgment on the existence of a strong creative milieu in metro areas.

Personally, I think Florida is correct to some extent, but also that should take care in specific cases as his is a generalized theory. Dayton could well be a special case.

As one can see by the extensive look at the local economy elsewhere on this blog, the Dayton area is doing quite well in things like computer services, engineering, consulting, "information", and, in Greene County, Scientific R&D. The driver for much of this is probably defense spending. This military-oriented mileu, with its security clearances, classified programs, and cultural conservatism, is not what one thinks of when thinks of Richard Florida's emphaisis on "bohemianism".

The Dayton area is already attracting elements of the creative class, but more on the techie/military side, not the arty/bohemian side.

Dave Hall's Penthouse

There is an urban legend about this building, that the mayor of Dayton lived in a penthouse on the roof:


This legend is true! The mayor was Dave Hall, serving on the city commission from 1963 and as mayor from 1965 to his resignation in 1970 due to health problems. Hall is named by the city directories as living there around this time.
Architecturally the design is ahead of its time for Dayton, An early postmodern design , with the black screen element with the outlined windows and keystones, and then a touch of Mies Van Der Rohe or Phillip Johnson, with the big steel and glass pavilion and window walls.

One of the things I found out was that this building was apartments, not just the penthouse. The Sam Hall Apartments (named after one of Hall's sons?). Four floors, ten apartments per floor, including the fifth floor with those big French door windows.

Can you imagine living in such a grand space? With huge ceilings and big windows that swing open to provide a view of the city?

Apparently the place was converted to apartments in the early 1960s (it was originally an Elks lodge), and stayed apartments into the mid 1980s. By 1988 it was back to offices.

What a loss.

Dave Hall was a loss too, maybe even a tragic figure.

Hall could have been one of the better mayors, and he was certainly a big advocate for downtown and renewal to compete with the suburbs. The urban unrest & racial strife of the 1960s intervened and Hall’s plans for downtown came to naught.

The Dayton Mall opened in 1970, the same year Hall resigned, pretty much ending downtown as a retail destination. Hall died in 1971, so he was spared a penthouse view of the slow destruction of the downtown he championed.

General Surplus Closes: Dayton becomes blander.

Dayton Most Metro and For the Love of Dayton both are blogging on the impending demise of General Surplus (apparently renamed GS Outfitters), putting a positive spin on the news due to the property being redeveloped for non-retail use.

I guess my feeling is if you dont't use it you lose it. This applies to retail as well as bars and restuarants.

I can't say that I was a regular at General Surplus as I'm not an outdoorsman. I did shop there for shoes, galoshes, and other things, mainly clothes, including some funky foreign military surplus items (like a Dutch army field coat and Bundeswehr camo sweater with that nifty BRD tricolor arm patch), gloves, hats, and so forth...more their military surplus side. And they had some funky military surplus (including greatcoats from a DDR border guard regiment).

One of the last things I bought at General Surplus was a great heavy wool sweater, my favorite gear for walking around Dayton in cold weather taking pix. I got a flannel shirt there, too.

And the place seemed good for hiking and backpacking gear.

So its pretty melancholy to see General Surplus disappear. Like the late, lamented Wilkies it was one of the Daytonesque things about Dayton.

The Masters of War: Greene County Economy

People think that old Bob Dylan protest song was about Vietnam.

It came out in ’63, too early for ‘Nam. It’s about what used to be called the “military industrial complex”

When Dylan sings:

Come you masters of war
You that build all the guns
You that build the death planes
You that build the big bombs
You that hide behind walls
You that hide behind desks
I just want you to know
I can see through your masks

…he is talking about things like the RAND Corporation, Herman Kahn, Defense contracting, “Weapons System Acquisition”, and “Research Development Test and Evaluation” (RDT&E).

The last few of these drive the economy of Greene County, and perhaps to an increasing extent (as manufacturing fades) Montgomery County, too.

The now familiar (on this blog) NAICS key:




....and the sectors in Greene County aggregated by payroll:

Right out the gate one can see the Professional, Scientific and Technical (PS&T) sector dominating the local economy., driving economic growth. No recession or stagnation in Greene County.

Breaking out the sectors to see payroll trends. Again PS&T is the driver, with a cluster of sectors in the mid range and a gaggle near the bottom:

Taking a closer look at the mid-range sectors, on can see the steady growth of retail and health care (compared to the flat-lining retail sector in Montgomery County). Manufacturing is affected by the recession, but not dropping as much as in Montgomery County:

The Future’s So Bright I Gotta Wear Shades

Nothing but blue skies and sunny days ahead for technical professionals in Greene County. Opening up the PS&T sector, one sees the strength of computers and Scientific R&D, and also Engineering to some extent:


But looking at payroll trends one sees Engineering perhaps affected somewhat by the recession, Yet note the very impressive takeoff of the Computer Services and R&D sectors in aggregate payroll.

Note that it was Computer Services that drove the growth of the PS&T sector in Montgomery County, too, so one wonders if there is a relationship?


Employment growth matches payroll to some extent:

...and, once again the takeoff in Computers, and delayed takeoff in R&D, both independent of the recession. One can infer that the Greene County economy is driven by defense budgets not the business cycle. Laying in the change in the executive branch from Democratic to GOP, one can see a close correlation between increase in “good times” for tech employment and GOP control:
So, if one wants a good economy for this area one should vote for the Republicans (at the Federal level), as they are more generous with the defense budget.


The Masters of War.

The Dayton Development Coalition (DDC) is pretty upfront the impact of defense contracting. Here is a map of some of the larger contractors, from their "Dayton Region At A Glance" download.

Familiar names to anyone who knows anything about this word. There might be smaller contractors and subcontractors not shown:

The DDCs strategy was to try to get more workload in infotech---computers and whatnot---and then hope for some spin-offs, either in civilian workload being brought in by the contractors, or start-up firms from the techie workforce (assuming this workforce is entrepreneurial enough to do startups).

But then comes Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC), which is will shift some of infotech workload out of the area.

The Dayton Daily News reported:

The biggest loss in terms of jobs appears to be the Development and Fielding Systems Group, formerly known as the Materiel Systems Group. It's located at Wright-Patterson but is a unit of the Electronic Systems Center at Hanscom Air Force Base in Massachusetts….


….The Pentagon recommended the move as part of an effort to consolidate technical work known as C4ISR — command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance….

….The job impact also isn't clear. The section of the BRAC report dealing with the C4ISR realignment said the economic impact on the Dayton area would be 2,250 jobs, including 988 contractor jobs — far more than the report's economic impact tables indicate.

To diagram this, the hit to the “private sector” footprint via contractors and indirect economic impact could be considerably larger than the military activity being relocated. (assuming the contractor workforce relocates):

...so one can expect a shift in employment and maybe subsector based on the changing military R&D/techie things going on at WPAFB, moving from infotech to bio-medical:

...perhaps one can also expect a shifting economic development spin from the DDC, too, as the BRAC shifts come online.

(if you want to see enlarged graphs click on the images).

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services in Dayton

Continuing with the County Business Patterns
(clicking on the charts will enlarge them)

The PS&T sector experienced growth in payroll, increasing from 6% to 10% between 1998 and 2005 as a share of Montgomery County aggregate payroll, becoming the 3rd largest sector after health care and manufacturing.

Let’s take a look at this sector.

PS&T is made up of various subsectors, such as legal services, accountancy, engineering and architecture and related fields, specialized services such graphic, industrial, and interior design, computer services such as custom programming, system design, and computer aided facility management service. PS&T also includes, consulting of various types, scientific R&D, advertising and public relations, and a grab bag of “other” services, ranging from commercial & portrait photography to veterinarians.



Some things not included are doctors, finance and insurance and some infotech fields like software publishing, web portals, ISPs, and database management.

Looking at the subsector payrolls between 1998 and 2005, two things stand out.

1. The strength of engineering. One would expect this to be in line with legal and accountancy, but engineering is higher than both in both payroll and employment. Unfortunately NAICS does not give detail as to what kinds of engineering, (civil, aerospace, etc.) so one can’t tell if there is a certain type that is stronger than the others.

2. The impressive growth of computer services. This subsector stands out as being the real driver of the growth in PS&T. This is mostly in “custom programming” and “computer systems design

The payroll trends show quite clearly the big bounce and high growth in computer services. The other sectors are not as strong, somewhat anemic, actually. R&D is unexpectedly weak. Consulting seems to be growing, though.

Looking at actual jobs, the growth, and big jump in one year, in Computer Services is again striking, as is the slow to no grow of the other sub sectors. Engineering again is leading legal services and accountancy, having has about as much as the two combined. But not much jobs being added.




The size of establishments in computer services in Montgomery County is interesting, too: this is a sector made up of a large number of small establishments, with establishments employing over 100 people being few. Yet the number of smaller firms decreases in recent years, and larger firms (employing over 1000) start to appear in 2004 and 2005 maybe indicating that employment is starting to concentrate into larger firms.

It would be interesting to see what these trends look like adding in FY06 and 07 data.

Next, a look at neighboring Greene County, which presents an interesting contrast.

Corner Store Vanity Post

I guess since this is a blog all my posts are vanity posts to some degree or another...but here is a personal one that doesn't have a connection to Dayton.

One of the reasons I'm interested in corner stores or "neighborhood retail" is that is what I grew up with in Chicago.

Here's a few from my old neighborhood. During my time these were still operating as either stores or taverns (there were more, but turned into apartments by then), and as you can see one is still in buisness as a corner store...


...one not shown is kitty-corner across from the "Hondos' Tavern", it was a bakery and my grandfather was born on top of it a year after my great grandparents emigrated from Lublin, Poland (at that time Russia) in the decade before WWI.

The ones I have a connection to was Stak's tavern as my grandfather used to stop off there on his way back from work, and especially Zosias (sp?), as it was the one we used since it was around the corner and down the street.

Zosia's husband, Stanley, was the butcher, and they lived behind the store. The place had an old metal pressed ceiling, and a retarded guy, Joey, used to hang out there, and deliver grocerys for them with his wagon. Some of the older neighborhood guys would pitch pennys on the front stoop, too.

Joey had his wagon, but, usually, if people went shopping beyond just a few items you'd see them use those two-wheeled carts for grocery bags. Everyone had them. I guess you can still buy them in Chicago, but don't know about Dayton.

Royal Blue was probably part of an old chain or buying co-op, as they had this neat art deco lettering and graphics in blue and white. Zosias was, at one time, part of something called "Midwest Markets". Probably another local Chicago chain.

Hondos was probably pretty interesting at one time, before they put the brick siding on. It is in one of the older streets in the neighborhood, built in the 1890s, I think. Chicago has a lot of those corner turret buildings, but more on the busy streets, and closer in.

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As for Dayton, I might go ahead and post my St Annes Hill corner store tour. That one is more about what was in these stores, not so much the architecture.