Saturday, January 12, 2008

Producing People for Export II

Taking a generational look at population change for Montgomery County This is an attempt to show how, as a group or cohort ages, the changes in that cohort, the additions or subtractions caused by out migration and death, with a focus on people during their teens and working years

For example, say there is an age grop of 20-29 year olds in 1990. What happens to them ten years later? They become a group of 30-39 year olds, but there will be people leaving the group (death and out-migration) and entering it (in-migration). If this is a growing area we should this group stay the same or increase.

The concept as a diagram:



Starting out with the very young adult cohort. People who where in their teens in 1990, and captured in the census, would be in their 20s in 2000, and be counted in the 2000 census, if they remained in the area. In reality, there will be some in and out migration, but there will be a net increase (if there is substantial in migration) or decrease in the group over 10 year..

What one sees is a fairly stable shift from 1990 to 2000. People in their teens in 1990 seem to have stayed in the area as they aged into their 20s, but note the start of net out-migration in the tail-end of this cohort.

Next, the bulk of the young adult demographic, people who were in their 20s and 30s in 1990, and what happens to this cohort 10 years later, in 2000.

Some relatively large declines, especially in the late 20s and early 30s groups. n the case of this young adult cohort one can infer death (by natural causes) is not a significant contributor to decline, so one is seeing net out migration.

Finally people who were in middle age in the 1990, in their 40s and 50s.


This cohort also loses people as it ages.

Putting it all together one sees how the cohorts nearly all lose population as they shift 10 years, from 1990 to 2000.


Next the decline changes in cohorts in numbers and by percent. The big drop in young adults, particularly those who were in their 20s and 30s in 1990, is quite noticeable here. But, as a percentage of the 1990 numbers, it appears the older adult, moving toward retirement, population also dropped quite a bit. And a consistent drop over the decade in the the people moving into and already in middle age (in their late 30s and 40s in 1990).



I guess the suprising thing with the young adult exodus during the 1990s was that that decade was supposed to be good economic times. Sure there was some mortality, but I suspect it was low. Another suprise was the increase in out migration for older adults nearting retirment. Perhaps a higher mortality, or people taking early retirment and moving out?

In any case Dayton/Montgomery County was producing people for export in the 1990s, particularly young adults in their 20s and early 30s, people we can ill afford to lose. The census data doesn't say were they went, but knowing that the entire metro area (Montgomery + Greene, Miami, & Preble County) lost population, one can surmise some number left the region.

I guess one can think of ones own social and family circles. Yer humble host knows of 7 young adults who left the area during the 1990s, so at least anecdotal evidence of outmigration.


Producing People for Export. Maybe this is an argument for good schools, to prepare youth to be able to compete in a national job market, not just a local one?

6 comments:

Bruce Kettelle said...

I have been part of many discussions exploring ideas to slow the exodus especially of the twenty somethings. No single concept accounts for all the movement but the two that rise to the top are usually high paying jobs and schools for their young children.

I have also anecdotally noticed neighbors retiring to Florida and elsewhere. The private retirement housing investment in the area is minimal and should be encouraged to create more attractive options as our baby boomers are coming of age. We don't need to keep feeding them to Florida.

Greg Hunter said...

Jeffery, Just got back from Seattle and I am catching up with local information. Thanks for the Production Post as well as the Warren Zevon material. (His widow just published a book I might read) Anyway, I have a question. Did I miss it or does this data include Warren County? I mean as a region did we actually lose this group or did they "sprawl out" of the data set? Anecdotally, I think it is real loss as most of the people that I graduated with (1981 Kettering Fairmont East) have left; however, some ended up in Springboro.

It is interesting to talk to some of the movers and shakers in this town and then asked them where their children ended up. For the most part, Dayton does not make the list. Unfortunately this loss of people in my age group implies that I should have less competition for any field of endeavor and therefore be successful. The bigger fish in a smaller pond, so to speak. This has not borne out as revenue from Dayton based operations as all of my income has been earned from projects outside the area. I just cannot bear to kiss any of the asses that make the decisions in this Town that have lead to the losses of this cohort. Of course that will change :)

Greg Hunter said...

To echo Bruce, I think that officials with public pensions (City & State) should be taxed at a higher rate if they retire out of Ohio. This will keep some of them at home as well as encourage decisions that influence more retired persons to stay in the area.

Jeffrey said...

There is some evidence of a reverse migration from Florida to Ohio and other Northern states for very old senior citizens, when they need nursing home care and want to be closer to family.

Yet I think Flordia countys are a big destination for outmigrants from Montgomery County. I found a website that has information on migration, but havn't looked in depth on it for out-of-state migration.

In answer to Greg, the numbers for these graphs are only for Montgomery County.

For Warren County, the top two migrant sources are Butler and Hamilton Countys, which together have send 28,000 people to Warren between 2000-2005. Montgomery has sent 10,300 to Warren.

These numbers are gross, without out deducting migration from Warren back, but you can see that Dayton isnt as big a contributor to Warrens' growth compared to the Cincy area.

Bruce Kettelle said...

Many of the retirement facilities I have stepped into in the area seem to have been created with an institutionalization mindset. Some of the newer ones are more homey and village like. Attractive active lifestyle locations are more typical in the Carolinas and Florida. Can't we create more of these Utopias here in the Miami Valley?

Anonymous said...

Sorry for being eight years late to the party, but a renewed interest in my hometown has me slowly working my way through Daytonology. I can add some insight as one of the age cohort being written about here. As twenty-somethings, we left Ohio for tech jobs in Northern California. Our parents, who were just reaching retirement age, relocated to Florida around the same time.