Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Mapping Dayton's Suburban Foreclosures

Interpreting Montgomery County foreclosures as of 4th quarter of 2007 (October, November, December). The map color codes the foreclosures using red for auction notice, black for bank repossession, and yellow for default notice.



(found this at the Centerville website)

Since the city is way too densely packed with foreclosure activity, and to demonstrate that this crisis is not limited to Dayton City, I enlarged parts of the map and circled & labeled some clusters of suburban foreclosure activity, to give a brief tour of the foreclosure districts.

Note, that though this looks like a lot, there are a lot of houses and condos in these areas, so if one actually plots these on a street map it won’t be as dense. At this scale, however, clusters of activity do show up well.

South Suburbs.

Going around the county in detail, counterclockwise, southern part of the county, one can see largish foreclosure clusters in the older river valley towns of Miamisburg and West Carrollton (quite a bit in West Carrollton, actually, including the areas south of Alex Bell, around the high school, & east of Springboro Pike), and then the plats east of Dixie Drive, say Huber South and plats along Lamme Rd.

Then a smaller cluster in the southern part of Southern Heights, north of Dorothy Lane.
There are clusters developing in the older parts of Centerville and in Germantown Most of Miami & Washington Townships and newer parts of Centerville seem to be fairly free of foreclosures.


East County

Here one sees a surprising cluster in the southern part of Oakwood, and less surprising ones in the older parts of Kettering (I noted this in an earlier post about declining Kettering, but using 2006 data). One can smaller clusters in Eastmont, southern Riverside, and along Woodman Drive. Kettering and Oakwood west of Far Hills, and the plats between Wilmington and Far Hills south of David seem to be fairly stable. And so does a lot of Riverside.

North County.

Clusters in the Avondale part of Riverside, various clusters in Huber Heights, and one forming up in northern Vandalia. One is starting to see foreclosures becoming endemic in subdivisions. Areas without foreclosures are mostly small farms and open or industrial land.
West County

Foreclosure activity everywhere. Small but tight foreclosure areas in Liberty and New Lebanon, quite a few in Trotwood, and also in Englewood (maybe not as dense as in Trotwood yet).

As we’ve seen before, a lot of the open area here is farmland, so the magnitude of the crisis is pretty severe in this particular suburban area; nearly every developed area seems to be getting some foreclosure activity, some more than others (compare New Lebanon with Brookville). Is De-Industrialization Impacting the Foreclosure Numbers?

I did some quickie maps of production workers (which we’ve seen are mostly in assembly and metal work/plastics) in numbers and by % , just to see if there are some correlations between concentrations and foreclosures.

Recall that the census numbers are from 2000, and the foreclosure numbers are from Oct/Nov/Dec 2007, so an assumption that hard times could be befalling unemployed and downwardly mobile factory workers trying to hold on to their houses, since some reports say industrial employment has dropped by a third.


Productions workers as a % of the total workforce in 2000: Tracts with most production workers in 2000: Then the 4th Quarter 2007 foreclosure map again, with an outline of the county for reference: One can compare these three maps. It’s really hard to say if there is a strong correlation. Some areas with concentrations of factory workers are seeing foreclosure clusters. And areas that don’t have these clusters are also seeing foreclosures.

One would need maybe a better time series of foreclosure locations, but the sub prime crisis still would be masking the impact of de-industrialization on redunant workers’ (vs. early-retirees) ability to keep their homes.

8 comments:

Bruce Kettelle said...

We've heard a lot about Montgomery population loss since 2000. I wonder how that would overlay on the charchteristics of production workers or foreclosures?

Anonymous said...

Hi:

I grew up in Dayton (living near Boston right now). Just wanted to say thanks for the fascinating blog. I am learning more about my hometown than I ever imagined, and really enjoying it. Cheers.

Bruce Kettelle said...

To anonymous: I lived in Boston in the late '70s to mid '80s. Are there any sites like this in Beantown that can get me caught up on the old stomping ground?

Anonymous said...

I too am a former Daytonian, but now sunning it up in Miami, FL. Great site, albeit depressing. Check out Governing Magazine's current article on the Dayton foreclosure crisis and makes your very point it's linked to the macro-economic trends. http://www.governing.com/articles/0804foreclosure.htm

Opening paragraph:
The house at 608 Oxford Avenue is in bad shape, but its neighborhood is worse. Next door sit two vacant lots where condemned residences already have been torn down. Like 608, the houses at 602 and 604 are boarded up, while all that's left of the house across the street is a set of concrete steps leading up to nothing. The story is the same on block after block of this old working-class district, just across the Mad River from downtown Dayton, Ohio. Driving around, Dayton City Commissioner Dean Lovelace points to a big empty parcel of land and says, "Even drug dealers are starting to abandon this neighborhood."

Jeffrey said...

"I wonder how that would overlay on the charchteristics of production workers or foreclosures?"

I couldnt do a direct overlay of the projections as the most recent data (2006),takes it down to county subdivision, such as township and muncipality.

Jeffrey said...

To the anonymous Floridian:

Thanks for the intel on the Governing story. That is quite coincidence as I am working on a post on Dayton vacnacy & abandonment, but taking more of a historic presevation angle...maybe...still working on it.

Depressing...An aquaintance once told me that I have an undiagnosed bi-polar disorder, so I guess that mental health issue comes out, indirectly, in this blog.

Anonymous said...

Bruce, here's a pretty good list.

http://www.bostonblogs.com/node/137

I don't know of any in particular though.

Bruce Kettelle said...

To Anonymous,

I found this boston blog by accident this morning. It tours various neighborhoods with pictures and the author also intermixes a few restaurant tips (I think they prefer Mexican). There is some stunning photography and a few good links. Thanks for making me look harder.
http://abostonvignette.blogspot.com/