Saturday, July 26, 2008

Deep Red in Washington Township

Unlike Oakwood, Washington Township is a better example of Bill Bishop's Big Sort theory, as precincts in the unincopororated parts of the township are much more likely to provide landslide victorys, in this case for the GOP.

In fact the point spread in Washington Township precincts exceed those of the Republican precincts of Oakwood, delivering, in some cases, majorities in excess of 35% to the GOP.

A good example is the Senate race in 2006. Nearly the entire northwest and southwest quadrants of the township went for the Republican by over 20%. In fact two of the southwest quadrant precincts where the top GOP precincts in the county for this race, delivering 71% and 72% of the vote to the GOP.

(again the % here is the difference in % between Democrat and Republican, to illustrate political polarization)

About the only areas in the unincorporated parts of the township that had a weak GOP vote were the OH 725 corridor, Sheehan Road area, and Nantucket Landing condo complex. Other weaker areas (but still pretty solid GOP) were Red Coach Farm (?) off Rahn, and some older areas also off Rahn and Whipp, east of Mad River. And that odd little Precinct V, north of Spring Valley. Apparenlty township votes found the GOP candidate that year much preferable to the Democrat.

Going to the bottom of the ticket, for County Auditor in 2006, similar pattern, though the GOP vote here weakens , perhaps indicating name recognition and the affects of incumbency. In this election the Dem actually won six precincts, and brought the margin to below 5% for 3 more. Again, one can detect a weakness in the OH 725 area west of Centerville.

For the Governors race I only mapped out the landslide precincts (where the GOP candidate beat the Democrat by 20% or more) and areas where the GOP was weak to investigate if a political neighborhoods were forming.

One can see the Democrat was much more competetive here, coming within 5% in three precincts, running at a tie in two precincts, and carrying four more. The Republican did better here than Oakwood, with six landslide precinct, including, at 62% of the vote, the top GOP precinct in the county for this race.

Based on the above one can see certain precincts where the GOP is somewhat weak: Red Coach Farm (which, suprisingly, the Democrats occasionaly carry) and a plat in the Woodbourne area in northern Washington Twp, the OH 725 area, Nantucket Landing, and Sheehan Road. The OH 725 corridor, south of I-675, is particularly interesting given that precincts here will go Democrat on occasion.

The Republicans have very strong showing across the unicorporated parts of the township, but maybe moreso in the southern half (basically Waterbury Woods subdivision), and especially the southeastern quarter south of Spring Valley Pike, with three more or less consistent landslide precincts

Washington Township is perhaps the most Republican community in Montgomery County, with precincts besting even the trad rural areas in western Montgomery county. Yet even here one can see evidence of political neighborhoods, clusters of precincts that deviate from the expected pattern of polarization, where the opposing party comes close, and sometimes wins.


Anonymous said...

No wonder I couldn't stand living in W.T.

Jefferey said...

No city income tax and close to the interestate and shopping = OK for me.

Andy Snow said...

"no city income tax"

Isn't this is the key? Many of the wealthiest in the region live here to avoid taxes while retaining access to amenities. And they want estate taxes eliminated as well.

And they vote red. Surprise surprise.