Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Election Day!

The Presidential Election. Our great national festival, or it should be.

I made my prediction based on Alan Lichtmans 13 Keys model, on this post.

In retrospect the last two keys were wrong; Obama isn't really that charismatic, and McCain isn't that much of a war hero (using Lichtman's standard for those things). But Key 5, short term economy, turned for Obama with a vengance.

The key thing about the Lichtman model is that it's based on the assumption that, rightly or wrongly, the voters chose based on the performance of the incumbent party, the party that holds the presidency at the time of the election. Peformance is not confined to just the economy, but also considers domestic policy innovation, domestic tranquility, and foreign policy sucess or failure. These determine mandate and party unity (the "political keys").

So this method puts a premium on competance, governance, and progress during a four year term, not on campaigning.

After the prediction the only thing left to really consider is what states are won by who, and the point spread, which is fun in its own way, since politics is a mix of geography, demographics, and marketing.

One also can't dispute the folkoric aspect of elections. The US has had the same form of government since the 18th century, so a lot of traidtions and tales and history has built up around the American form of democracy. One of the best interpretations of this, in a regional sense, was the movie Oh Brother Where Art Thou, which was based on historical political figures and tendancys in the pre-Civil-Rights era South.

For more countercultural types Louisville bad boy Hunter Thompson's Fear and Loathing on the Campaing Trail '72 is an excellent dive into the world of politics junkies.



2008 in the Dayton Region

Taking it local, hopefully the DDN will have some graphics to show the geography of the vote here in Montgomery County. Daytonology will update the precinct maps used in these posts on Oakwood and Washington Township when the results are in, to see if the red/blue split continues in these suburbs (and to what degree of polarization).

One lower-ticket race yer humble host is watching is the Quinn/Wiseman judicial race, to see if voters here can rise above their homophobia and keep Mary Wiseman as judge. Quinn seems to have the fund raising advantage (more signs?), the military/Wright-Patterson connections (which are gold in local politics), plus I think there is some sort of anti-Wiseman undercurrent going on, having spotted one or two "Liberals for Quinn" bumper stickers.

And, of course, taking it really local, the Centerville tax grab, better known as Issue 48. I understand the DDN endorsed this, but have not read the endorsment.

3 comments:

74ta455 said...

Thank goodness Issue 48 failed. I can't for the life of me understand what Centerville was thinking.

My family will be safely huddled in our shack in Washington Twp for 3 more years, safe from Centerville's grubby hands.

Did you see Bellbrook/Sugarcreek's kneejerk Centerville-defense study passed? It doesn't make sense for those to merge either, but now they'll pay for a study.

Jefferey said...

What was Centerville thinking?

Centerville was thinking they needed more revenue to subsidize their level of services without a tax increase for city residents, rather than cut back.

I wasn't familiar with that Bellbrook measure, but I do recall C-ville making land grabs in Sugarcreek over at the Wilmington Pike interchange.

I'm going to be posting on Bellbrook @ Sugarcreek later this month as they are doing some innovative things with planning there.

Bruce Kettelle said...

Jefferey, I misplaced your email address and have an offline question for you. Please drop me a note so I may reply.

Bruce